Home / Polling

Reform UK polls.

Start with the original research. A poll is a snapshot of a sample, not an election result.

Find the original data

Look for voting intention releases from YouGov, More in Common, Ipsos and Opinium. Read the full tables and methodology alongside any headline.

What to check before comparing polls

• Fieldwork dates. When were people interviewed, rather than when was the poll published?
• The sample. Who was surveyed, how many people answered and which population does the poll represent?
• The question. Voting intention, leader approval and preferred prime minister measure different things.
• Methodology. Weighting, turnout assumptions and treatment of undecided respondents can differ between pollsters.
• The trend. Consider multiple comparable releases. A small movement in one survey may reflect sampling variation.

Vote share is not seat share

Westminster elections use constituency contests. A national vote share does not translate directly into the same proportion of parliamentary seats. Seat projections require additional modelling and assumptions.