Source guideUpdated 2026-09-09. Sources and limitations are explained below; historical material is identified separately.
Could Nigel Farage become Prime Minister?
That outcome is not known. We do not present polling leads or political ambitions as proof that someone will become prime minister.
Separate predictions from the public record
Read the polling source guide for evidence and uncertainty, and the Reform UK guide for sources on the party. Any forecast should explain its assumptions and the date of its evidence.